Bedard would put M's back into fold

Although there is no official news to report as there have been some tie-ups between the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners, this is as close as we have gotten this entire offseason to a big news trade. Really, the only potential trades that would meet that criteria would be deals regarding Baltimore's Erik Bedard or Minnesota's Johan Santana. Trade talks and free agent negotiations are destined to make one last push in the next two weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.

Part of the fun we get to have in the offseason is talking about all of the buzzing speculation surrounding potential moves and how they would affect the teams involved. As a fan, there is nothing better than a big name rumor flying around, except, of course, the reality that the deal actually takes place. That is where we are with Bedard and Santana, but it still proves worthwhile to talk about what might be.

I didn't view Seattle as a front runner for Bedard by any means, as they had already dished out a lot of money to Carlos Silva, and I assumed they would either try to obtain extra depth from within, or put a contract offer on the table for on of the lesser free agent pitchers. It was widely assumed that the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets would be the big players regarding the high profile pitchers in the trade market.

But say this deal does happen with Seattle, where they ship off a basket of prospects for the rising star. I love what it does for the Mariners in the immediate future, meaning 2008, and beyond. Seattle came out of nowhere last year to be in the hunt down the stretch until a pivotal three-game set with the Angels at Safeco Field. Needless to say, the Angels went in a swept the series, completely deflating anything momentum the Mariners were trying to garner for the stretch run, and they ended the season a mile out of first place.

But the final standings did not show what kind of team Seattle could potentially be. They won 88 games last year with an average offense and below-average starting pitching. Throw Bedard into the mix and this team could potentially win 92-93 games and be right in the hunt to battle the Angels down the stretch.

Seattle's prize starting pitcher is Felix Hernandez, who is arguably the game's most promising young pitcher, and he turned in a good season on a mediocre team. Hernandez went 14-7 with a 3.92 ERA, adding 165 strikeouts in 190.1 innings pitched. That is pretty darned good for a kid who still struggles with the inconsistencies that all pitchers do when trying to make the adjustment to major league hitters. Of course, we all remember the complete game shutout he threw early in the season at Fenway Park. At 21 years old, he turned in one of the most dominating performances in recent memory.

But if you look at Seattle's rotation as a whole, the need for a guy like Bedard to compliment Hernandez jumps out and hits you in the face. The Mariners' starting rotation combined to throw for 928.2 innings with a 5.16 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The rotation as a whole posted a rate of 5.8 for strikeouts per nine innings, proving its glaring lack of anything close to dominant.

By adding Bedard to the mix, the Mariners would be able to boot Horacio Ramirez and his 7.16 ERA. Replacing horrible numbers with a dominant arm will have a huge impact on the overall success of the team, although at this point it is tricky to estimate just how much of an impact. And it is all worth noting that these numbers do not take into account Seattle's bullpen, which has one of the best closers in baseball in J.J. Putz to pitch the ninth inning. But what if the offense also improved a little bit from 2007, then how much would the addition of Bedard be magnified? Well, that isn't so easy either, as improving on last season could be a tough task.

In 2007, the Seattle offense produced a .287 batting average, .337 OBP, .425 SLG, and scored 794 runs. That offense equates to approximately 5 runs a game, good for twelfth-best in the majore leagues. The loss of Jose Guillen will make improving the offense that much tougher, but with Bedard, the Mariners may be fine even with an offense that equals the numbers from 2007.

Of course, baseball is not a perfect game and does not demand a team to put up career highs in every category in order to outlast the division favorite. One of the factors that I find so appealing about baseball is the unknown that goes along with the game every day. There is a degree of unpredictableness that cannot be rivaled in any other sport. Baseball is the game that can make a player feel like a perennial all-star one day, and spit him out and humble him the next.

So this poses the unanswerable, but nonetheless interesting, question of how would the Mariners fair with Bedard in their rotation and a dip in production from the Angels? I am assuming that there are no real sleeper teams in this division as the A's are in a full-fledged rebuilding mode and Texas has a couple of years before graduating a crop of young talent to the big league level. The Angels are on of the five best teams in baseball, and therefore makes them the odds-on favorites, with Seattle the only team even close to making a run at them.

It is beneficial to look at what the Angels did last year in comparison with Seattle. The starting rotation for the Angels posted a 4.22 ERA in 2007 to go along with a 1.40 WHIP and a strikeout per nine innings rate of 6.87. The Angels, regarded as one of the better pitching teams in baseball, come in well ahead of Seattle in all major pitching categories. Take out Bartolo Colon's and Ervin Santana's 6.41 and 5.92 ERA's, respectively, and only two Angels who started at all in 2007 posted an ERA above 4.00. Those two guys would be Joe Saunders, with a 4.44 ERA, and Dustin Moseley, with a 4.20 ERA, who combined to make 26 starts and pitch over 145 innings as starters.

It is safe to say that Moseley will not be in the rotation this year, and Saunders has an opportunity to win a spot in Spring Training. The Angels only improve their rotation depth with the addition of Jon Garland, who has the ability to win twenty games given the hard sinker he will have opposing hitters beat into the ground. When you take into consideration the tweaks that will be made to improve the Angels rotation, it is clear why the Halos are far superior than Seattle on the mound.

The Angels as a team posted a .284 batting average in 2007, coupled with a .345 OBP, and a .417 SLG. Los Angeles used their manufacturing-style of play to score 822 runs, sixth best in Major League Baseball. How will the 2008 Angels offense compare to 2007? That is still to be seen as there are a number of factors that will have a say in the matter. I am not sure how much the Angels will miss the offense of Orlando Cabrera, or how much production Torri Hunter will be able to add to the lineup. And that goes without even mentioning the holes in the infield that still need to be filled. There are many uncertainties in the Angel lineup that will be worked out during Spring Training, so we will have to come back to this one to get a better look.

It is clear that the Angels are the team to beat, both offensively and defensively, in the AL West. With all amendments considered, the Angels offense will be better than the Mariners' offense in 2008. From top to bottom, the Angels rotation will certainly be better than Seattle's. But I get excited about the fact that, given this team won 88 games last year, the Mariners could be in the race for the AL West crown if they can find a way to reach an agreement with the Orioles for Erik Bedard. Baseball is a game of uncertainty and one that will undoubtedly change overnight. There is a reason why the games are played out and even the lowly underdogs are given a chance to have a say in the outcome of the postseason. With one trade, maybe, just maybe, the Mariners will be able to compete in a division that looks all but over. And to think pitchers and catchers haven't even reported to Spring Training yet...