Now that the ultimate trade of the winter has happened and the media frenzy has begun, we can sit back and look at the effects the Johan Santana trade will have on four teams. Granted, this deal isn't official until the Mets and Santana reach a contract extension, but that is inevitable if only for the pressure New York Mets' general manager Omar Minaya is feeling from the media and fan base after the horrible collapse down the stretch in 2007.
I love this deal for the Mets, as they got the best pitcher in baseball for a package of four prospects that does not come close to the package that the Yankees or Red Sox offered earlier in the winter. The Mets pulled the market's biggest fish without even surrendering their top hitting or pitching prospect. That is simply amazing considering how great Johan Santana is and the preposterous price that is placed on premium pitching in today's market.
The Mets gave up a pitching prospect who doesn't turn 19 years old until after Opening Day, and whose stuff is inconsistent across the board. There is always odds against any pitching prospect, but one at this age has many years of hard work ahead before they even get a shot in the big leagues.
The Mets also gave up pitchers Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey, both who can be average big league starters but will not reach the level of any sort of superstar. Both have good stuff, but not great stuff and therefore will be limited in the rotation. Pitching in the NL East is no small task, and the only thing that gives these two guys hope is that they do not have to pitch in the other Eastern division.
The other prospect the Mets gave up in the Santan deal is outfielder Carlos Gomez who is a great defensive player with a mediocre bat. As good a prospect as Gomez may be, this loss shouldn't sting the Mets too much for a couple of reasons. First, New York has uber-prospect Fernando Martinez in the system who is possibly two full seasons away from the big leagues. Martinez is a five-tool talent and should be patrolling center field in the Mets new ballpark for the next decade at least. Second, if the Mets really needed to fill the void in the system from the loss of a guy like Gomez, they can get some other player who is fairly comparable with a sandwich pick. Taking that into consideration, the Mets should be absolutely ecstatic at what they had to give up in order to get, hands down, the best pitcher in the sport.
At first glance, my natural reaction to this trade from the Twins perspective was much like many other fans out there. I instantly thought the Twins sold way too short and didn't get any player in return that has a chance to be one of the elite guys at his position in the big leagues. But ESPN.com's Buster Olney made a good point in saying that there is nothing the Twins could have done besides take the package that the Mets offered. Olney stated that it would be easy to sit here and criticize what the Twins did, but without knowing what was actually out there, we cannot really evaluate the situation that Minnesota was in.
With that perspective, I guess I can't really blame the Twins for what happened. Look, they had the best player in all of baseball and were trying to score a huge deal that would bring them at least two prime time prospects. And who can blame them? The only problem was that Boston didn't want to part with Ellsbury and Lester, and the Yankees didn't want to trade Hughes and Kennedy. The Twins were try to pry away two of the four guys, and it just didn't happen. But would it be worse to accept a solid deal and possibly underplay the biggest trading chip in the game, or try to get too much and having to take a solid package in the end?
I am not sure what the answer is to that question, but the Twins could not have predicted the outcome. There was no way to know that the situation would unfold the way it did. There were no signs pointing to the conclusion that both the Yankees and Red Sox would pull their offers off of the table and be satisfied with keeping their young players. Once that situation arised, the Twins were suddenly stuck with what the Mets had to offer. In that regard, the Twins should of taken this package of players instead of two draft picks. The only area that I still believe is fair to crticize the Twins is the fact that they didn't even come up with one of the top two prospects in the Mets system. They didn't get their best hitter, or their best pitcher. How does that happen when you have Johan Santana? With that being said, the Twins still come out as winners because they did get a good group of players, albeit much less talent than they initially expected. I still prefer these players over two picks that may not arrive in the big leagues for six years.
The teams that should be the happiest are the Yankees and Red Sox. Both teams have enough talent to win in 2008, but were still able to keep a bright future intact. I never liked the idea of giving up prospects who have already proven some success in the big leagues for one guy who you then must break the bank to sign to a record contract. Not that money is an issue for the Yankees or the Red Sox, but money is still money and $150 million can still be spent in better ways. This is not a question of how the Yankees or Red Sox lost out on Santana and what they have in store for plan B. No, they are both winners for setting themselves up to have a heck of a rivalry for the next six years at least, and giving them financial flexibility to go after big time free agents in future years.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
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