Friday, May 16, 2008

Ballpark Banter- Contracts

1) The Tampa Bay Rays, in an effort to stabilize their long term future, extended ace Scott Kazmir with another 3 years and $28 million. This is the trend that baseball teams are taking now with their bright, young stars in order to save money in the long term and prevent them from testing the free agent market. Kazmir is the first pitcher to be given an extension like this, and here lies the difference in the deals. Clubs are reluctant to extend a pitcher to long because of the always present risk of blowing out an elbow or a shoulder. Position players get the mega bucks and the longer deals because there is a better chance they will stay on the field, let alone the fact that they play every day and not once every five days.

With that aside, I like this deal for the Rays for two reasons. First, is the money, which is fairly obvious. By extending Kazmir, this will delay the lefty testing the free agent market, where he would command upwards of $10 million per year. Fact is, with the way the market has exploded in today's game, Kazmir would probably be looking around $14 million per year, for starters. He does not have the track record of a Johan Santana, so the 9-figure deal would probably not be in order.

But who knows, I could be selling him short at $14 million per year. There is much anticipation about the inevitable splash C.C. Sabathia is going to make on the free agent market this winter, and rumors are flying around about him getting possibly as much as $20 million per year. I don't think either one of these guys is in Santana's class, and therefore should not command top dollar. But is Kazmir really that far off from Sabathia's level? Stuff wise, I think they are pretty comparable, and we know both of them can be electric on any given night. It would be intresting to see where Kazmir's price tag would fall this winter when both he and Sabathia are on the market. My guess would be he would come in a few million per year under Sabathia.

Secondly, I like this deal for the Rays because now they have a great foundation at the top of the rotation to build on. They locked up James Shields earlier this year, and now with Kazmir locked up long term, they have two guys that they know will give them a chance to win every time they take the ball. The hype surrounding Tampa's farm system, primarily their stable of pitchers, is incredible, and this deal helps give them a safety net while they begin the process of weaving their young kids into the major league rotation.

They already have Edwin Jackson on the big club, and he will have some growing pains that they must endure, although he has looked great for the most part this season. But you know the story with young pitchers-- inconsistencies will harp on them in the early going and command will downplay their arsenal, to some degree. Most pitchers need to have some success, then go through a little period of regression, or failure, before they can bounce back and reach their full potential. It is part of the maturing process that Price, Davis, McGee et al. will undergo at some point.

And I like this deal for Kazmir because of the security, let alone the money he is making. It is hard to keep these things in perspective sometimes because professional athletes make an unfathomable amount of money. But there is no way I would pass up $28 million to play baseball for three seasons. That's just me.

There is a key difference between Kazmir and the aforementioned Sabathia, and it is exaclty the reason why it was a wise move for Kazmir to opt for security. Sabathia is a horse who is going to eat a ton of innings while being an All-Star caliber starting pitcher. Kazmir has the same potential, but he has a little bit of injury history attached to his name and he hasn't come close to reaching Sabathia's inning totals over the last two seasons combined. With that factored in, and make no mistake it is a huge part, Kazmir is more of a long term risk and therefore will benefit from taking this deal now instead of trying to tread water until he becomes a free agent.


2) The most recent young position player to be locked up by his club is Milwaukee's Ryan Braun, who inked an 8-year, $48 million deal to make him, along with Prince Fielder, the future of the franchise in Milwaukee. Braun joins Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez as budding superstars who signed long term contracts this season.

This is a great sign for the Brewers because they are getting eight seasons worth of production from a player who would already command more than $6 million per year on the free agent market. As long as Braun progresses like he is expected to and Prince Fielder stays healthy and keeps slugging homeruns, the Brewers have a bright spot to build upon. If Rickie Weeks ever scratches the surface of the type of player that he is capable of becoming-- which I think he will-- this is not going to be a fun lineup to pitch to. They will rival the Cubs for the best lineup in the division, unless Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Co. of the Reds have something to say about it.

This deal falls right in the middle of the Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez deals. Ramirez' contract can be thrown right out of the window because Braun and Tulowitzki cannot match his overall offensive package. Ramirez may be as dynamic a bat as any in baseball, with his speed and power combo a rare treat to baseball fans. Braun will hit homeruns and drive in runs, and that is what the Brewers have now paid him hansomely to do.

I think the Rockies got a better deal for Tulowitzki, mainly because they are going to pay him $17 million less than the Brewers will play Braun when these deals expire. But the difference is that the Rockies locked up a player who excels at arguably the toughest position in all of baseball for six seasons and will pay him less per year than the Brewers will pay Braun to play an adequate outfield.

But, of course, the two less years could come back to haunt the Rockies as long as Tulowitzki rebounds from this leg injury and proceeds to be the superstar that we have already seen doses of. If that is the case, Tulowitzki will begin the talks at $100 million for his next contract, and I hate to put this type of burden and dolalrs on a young kid, but, overall, he could be a better player than Derek Jeter at the same age. And Jeter got $189 million over ten seasons from the Yankees.

Braun got more money is his deal, but gave up two more free agent seasons, which is the bargain the two sides agreed upon, rightfully so. All of these words are contigent upon the fact that Braun holds up his part of the deal and becomes an elite bat at the major league level over the course of this contract. If he does that, he will be in line for a huge payday, like Tulowitki will be, and the Brewers will have gotten a steal for their money.

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