Saturday, June 21, 2008

Saturday morning briefing

* The best news out of Chicago on Friday had nothing to do with the ball game between the city's rivals, the Cubs and White Sox, after all. On a day when Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano went in for an MRI on his right shoulder, the North Side held its breath and braced for the biggest blow to date, which would have shattered their hopes of contending for a World Series title this season and ending their 100 year drought as World Champions. Turns out, the Wrigley faithful can exhale and fuel their dreams for another day.

Zambrano was diagnosed with a minor shoulder strain, the least harming outcome of what could have been devastating. The Cubs are the best team in the National League Central, even when the Brewers have a healthy Ben Sheets, and they may have surpassed Arizona and New York as the best team in the entire National League. The Diamondbacks came out of the gate on fire, and New York has been tabbed the early favorite for the National League pennant ever since Mr. Johan Santana found his way from Minneapolis to Queens.

But here are the Cubs, steady in their approach, focused on the prize. They have not been the roller-coaster team that Arizona and New York has been, just simply playing good, sound baseball the right way-- as if Lou Pinella would have it any other way. What makes the Cubs so good is the balance they have throughout their lineup, the home field advantage, and their capable pitching staff.

Kosuke Fukudome has added an extra element to the Cubs offense that helps set the table for big boppers Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Fukudome has been entrenched at the top of the lineup since Alfonso Soriano went on the disabled list with a broken hand. Jim Edmonds has had a strong month of June, and if he can give them any type of consistency down the stretch, that makes them much deeper due to the addition of a veteran left handed bat.

The big difference for the Cubs though, is the Chicago people that continue to pack Wrigley Field, day or night, rain or shine. The crowd is such a difference maker that the Cubs rarely lose at home-- they have lost only 8 games at home in 2008. One of the most passionate baseball cities in the country, Chicago is rockin' when the White Sox or Cardinals come into town, and we got a glimpse of the playoff atmosphere with the Cubs' postseason run in 2003. If this club hangs on to the division lead in the second half, there may not be a more hostile playoff environment than Wrigley Field-- that includes Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, if the Red Sox and Yankees earn a postseason birth.


* The chain saws are fired up and general managers everywhere are swinging them with momentum. The Week of Managerial Casualties is over, but at the expense of Willie Randolph, Jay Gibbons, and John McLaren. All of these managers have been under fire for some time, and it wasn't a surprise that they were shown the door. The Mariners have been baseball's biggest disappointment this season, especially after the bar was set so high after the trade that brought Erik Bedard to Seattle to help anchor the rotation with Felix Hernandez.

Jay Gibbons has had some talent in Toronto, but couldn't get one of baseball's best pitching staffs to lift a club that has had playoff potential for a couple of seasons. Gibbons has had a history of run-ins with his players as well, but those may or may not be his fault.

Then there is Randolph who was booted partly because the Mets have not performed nearly to the expectations and the New York media has made sure not a day goes by without that point being hammered home. At this point, the Mets really didn't have a choice, and the question of whether it is fair or unfair is irrelevant in this business.

I am not backing up any of these firings, nor am I saying that these business decisions weren't warranted. But, really, where is the focus in the game today? There is a good saying that puts perspective on these things, but is clearly forgotten today, and it goes like this: Coaches get too much credit, and they get too much blame.

Fact of the matter is, the best managers in baseball, and we are talking about the best, win a few games a year based on certain baseball decisions during a ball game. But in reality, I really don't know if a team would play so much better or so much worse if they had no manager or if they had Joe Torre. Torre is considered one of the best, and yet his clubs can't win if the right players aren't on the field. In the end, it all comes down to the players and how they perform, and it always will. A manager's job is to keep the media under control and provide a professional environment for their players to perform to the best of their abilities. They don't swing the bat and they don't throw the pitches.

Wade Boggs said it best recently when he said that a manager shouldn't be fired because he "fails to motivate" his players-- as was primarily the case with Randolph in New York. Boggs wonders if $10-15 million and the pride of doing your job well isn't enough motivation, then what is? Boggs hit the nail right on the head with this one, and at some point, more responsibility will fall on the product on the field, and less excuses will be launched towards the manager's office.


* Baseball is closing in on a month to go before the trade deadline, and there isn't a clear-cut direction in which this season's market could go. There could be many buyers due to the increase in teams who have a chance at contending, or there could be a stable of sellers who decide to cash in and get some young pieces instead of break the bank this season with slim chances of winning. This next month will be critical for many clubs to decide which direction they are to go. The Marlins, Rockies, Orioles, Indians, Tigers, Twins, Rangers, Braves, and Giants are all clubs that are still in limbo.

If the Indians decide that they have too much ground to make up in a month, then the biggest trade piece is in their corner, and that is power lefty C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia would certainly be coveted by clubs who have a serious chance at making a postseason run, but his looming free agency and the almost guarantee of a nine-figure contract this offseason may scare many clubs away.

It is difficult, at best, to put a finger on what the Sabathia market will be if and when Cleveland decides to make him available. I'm not sure clubs who cannot afford his free agent contract will be willing to part ways with a couple top prospects when they will only have Sabathia for 2-3 months of work. The A's have plenty of prospects to make the trade, but that may be one of the least likely destinations because of the reputation of GM Billy Beane to put a club together on the cheap.

Texas needs pitching in a big way, but the reason they traded away Mark Teixeira at the deadline last year was because they would have no shot at signing him once he hit the free agent market. The Marlins and the Braves are still in the hunt, but their ambiguous future this season is what will ultimately decide their interest. Atlanta is regarded as one of the stronger teams in the National League and is certainly within striking distance at 6 games back in the NL East.

The Marlins are 2 games back of the Phillies, but it seems as if the baseball world is waiting for them to falter and begin playing like the team we thought they were entering the season. Fortunately, their opinion is the only one that matters on whether or not they can keep this up. Give and take a few other small market clubs-- San Francisco, San Diego, Milwaukee-- this points towards the financially fruitful powers.

The Yankees have the money and attitude to make any move, but if they wouldn't trade their young guys for Johan Santana, why would they trade them now for Sabathia? That just doesn't seem plausible. Boston is in such a good position that they have money and prospects, and they don't need to make any moves. Their big league club has enough depth to withstand injuries, also allowing their kids to grow and develop in their system without being rushed. They will most likely take a crack at the World Series with what they have now, and wait for Sabathia to test the free agent waters, where they would be a favorite to land him.

The Mets wouldn't be a surprise, but after emptying out their system to get Santana, and then giving him upwards of $150 million in free agency, they don't have much to offer Cleveland that would be enticing enough. With all of these factors in play, I see two clubs in particular that are on the fringe and could possibly sneak in to make a deal for Sabathia: Those clubs are the Orioles and Dodgers.

Baltimore is in the same class as Florida-- they were expected to be terrible, but instead they are surprising many by sticking around the race, dipping a couple toes in the playoff pool. Sitting 6 games back in the AL East, Baltimore will have to decide within the next month if they think they have a chance at making the postseason this season. If not, they will play it out with what they have and continue to develop their kids. If they feel they have a chance, they have the resources to make this deal. After sending Erik Bedard to Seattle, the Orioles have a collection of intriguing prospects that Cleveland could ask for in return. And we know they have money and an owner who is not afraid to spend-- they are already considered one of the candidates to throw big money at Texeira this winter.

The Dodgers are the enigma of this bunch because they sit 4.5 games back in the NL West, and yet they have enough pieces currently to be a dangerous team in any division. They have pitching and they have youth, but those have not translated into consistent success so far. With Brad Penny and Hiroki Kuroda battling arm issues, though they aren't believed to be serious, the Dodgers could certainly use an ace to make a run at a championship this season. They have plenty of quality kids who are already in the big leagues, but Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Clayton Kershaw are deemed untouchable-- even for Johan Santana.

With Kershaw out of the picture, the one doubt that creeps into my mind is whether or not they have enough pitching prospects to make the Indians feel comfortable in completing a deal. Would a Andre Ethier, Andy LaRoche, and Eric Stults package be enough? What about a deal built around Ethier and Jonathan Broxton? I'm not so sure. But if they could pull that off, there is no question that the Los Angeles market gives the Dodgers enough dollars to lock up Sabathia with a long term deal. Figuring out any team that would suit C.C. Sabathia, all things considered, is an evasive task, and this next month of games will be vital for pinpointing a possible destination. And, of course, all of this depends on whether or not Cleveland can and/or will sign him themselves.

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