Saturday, September 20, 2008

Saturday morning notes

* If we need any more reasons to be excited about watching the Tampa Bay Rays, here's one: Edwin Jackson. Jackson may be one of the best stories in baseball this season but he is often overshadowed due to his past and the emergence of other big names in Tampa. Jackson was a highly-touted Dodgers prospect five years ago as he was rushed to the big leagues to make his debut on September 9, 2003, his twentieth birthday. After struggling through a little over 70 innings over the course of three seasons with the Dodgers, Los Angeles gave up on the "bust" and traded him in January, 2006 to Tampa Bay along with minor leaguer Chuck Tiffany for Danys Baez and Lance Carter. Think the Dodgers would like to have this one back?

Jackson got a taste of the big leagues with the Rays in 2006 while spending most of the season refining his craft in the minors. The Rays gave him a chance to pitch in the rotation in 2007, and with Tampa Bay finishing 30 games under .500, Jackson was allowed to pitch 161 innings in the big leagues without attention and without pressure. Jackson posted a 5.76 ERA last season, but the experience of his first real major league workload proved to be invaluable coming into spring training this season.

We knew the Rays had something brewing, but I don't know anyone who thought Tampa Bay would play this good this season. Most of us expected success to seep through in 2009 or 2010. But success for the Rays has come with unbelievable growth for Jackson. It would be safe to say that Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon had no idea what he had in Jackson in March. He knew the kid could be a contributor, but how much could he help the club? Jackson would have to prove that himself. 

Jackson, only a week and a half removed from his 25th birthday, has been outstanding this season for the Rays, providing a power arm to help the Rays go from AL East cellar to AL East alpha dog in one year. This season, Jackson is 12-11 with a 4.19 ERA over 176 innings. He still has plenty of work to do, of course. But to see where this kid was only two years ago, to where he is now, is unbelievable. If you tuned in to any of the Rays-Twins game on Friday, you saw why the Rays took a chance to buy low on this kid. A 96-mph fast ball and nasty slider are only two reasons. Jackson gave up 1 run over 7 2/3 innings in the Rays 11-1 romp of the Minnesotians. If I was Maddon, I wouldn't hesitate to give Jackson the ball in Game 4 of any playoff series. The kid has a newfound confidence and has the ability to dominate anybody on any given night. And that is what makes Jackson, and the Rays, so special and so much fun to watch.


* Does Greg Maddux deserve to be included in the playoff rotation for the Dodgers, if and when they hang on to win the NL West? That is the question that Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times mulled over this morning. No, this isn't the easiest decision to make given the obvious factors: diminished stuff, routinely average performances, possibility of being hammered by anyone, caliber of other options, etc. This would be a no brainer if we are talking about the Greg Maddux of five years ago. But, today?

I still say yes, the Dodgers have to have Greg Maddux in their post season rotation. I have said time and again that I would rather have talent than experience because talent can dominate. But that's over the long haul, over a full season, over three seasons. If we are talking about one game you must win, it is hard to ignore a guy with over 350 career victories who has lived in the post season.

But this isn't that hard, actually, if we break it down for the Dodgers. Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley are going to head any playoff rotation they put out there. They have been the rocks of this staff, so done and done. I would say that Huroki Kuroda deserves a chance in the third spot given his stuff and his performance. Has he had some stinkers this year? Sure. And he has as much major league experience as Clayton Kershaw does. But there is something to be said for a guy who has pitched in professional baseball in some competitive capacity for ten years. But more so, there is something to be said about a guy who can throw a 94-mph two-seam fast ball at the knees. That's the kind of stuff I believe in, and Kuroda can bring that. So to me, he's in. At least for the first series.

That leaves Kershaw or Maddux for the fourth spot, and this doesn't seem like much of a decision to me. I'm as big a Kershaw fan as anyone, and it has been fun to watch the growth in his second stint in the big leagues. He can be the most dominating pitcher on the Dodgers staff at any time. We know this. But putting any twenty year old kid in the middle of the post season stage is a little unfair. He has the talent and he has the confidence, that's not the question. But the Dodgers can't afford a wild outing in a short playoff series. Walks kill you in the post season. Long innings lead to tired arms and exposed bullpens. At the very least, Maddux can take the ball and run with it. 

Maddux's savvy alone is worth more in the playoffs. He throws strikes and can set up hitters probably better than anyone in baseball. He won't be intimidated by the bright lights and sold out stadiums because he has been there before. But even more importantly, Maddux will not be overwhelmed by emotions and nerves. He will know how to calm himself and go out and pitch. Yes, it's fair to argue that Kershaw could do the same and that we really don't know how he will respond until he is put into that situation. 

The wise thing would be to put Kershaw into the bullpen for the first round and see how everything plays out. Torre can keep Maddux on a short leash from the get go, and if something is about to go terribly wrong, he can send Kershaw out to the mound to start the third inning. But what makes Maddux so great is that it will be the fifth inning before Torre even settles down on his dugout perch with his cup of hot coffee. Torre ought to use Kershaw in two or three inning stints and allow him to be a dominant middle guy. That would prove to be an unbelievable value for a kid that has exceeded all expectations this season. If Maddux chokes in his one start and the Dodgers make it past the first round, then maybe the Dodgers send the rookie to the mound in the NLCS. But if we are talking about pressure and expectations and who is better suited to handle them, come on. This shouldn't be that tough of a call. 

1 comment:

Alex said...

Really great article Teddy. Good analysis of our rotation and where Maddux fits in. I'm glad you incorporated a picture of Edwin Jackson too. Nice touch. Keep it up