Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Wednesday playoff push

* With all of the races up for grabs in the final week of the regular season, one of the most intriguing races comes from Minnesota, courtesy of the Twins and Chicago White Sox and the AL Central. The White Sox rolled into the Metrodome on Tuesday evening with a 2.5 game lead over the Twins, and was promptly waxed by Minnesota. The Twins need to win the next two ball games at home in order to take control and put their season in their own hands, so therefore White Sox still have some breathing room. This race is a simple as it gets: whichever team wins over the next two days will have a straight shot to October.

But even with Chicago's 1.5 game advantage entering Wednesday, I can't remember another race this late in the series where the club who is chasing actually seems like the real contender, the team in control. That's exactly how it feels with these Twins right now. They have momentum and then some inside that dome. Scott Baker was superb over seven innings for the Twins, allowing one earned run to pick up his tenth win of the season. He was supposed to be the young guy to fold under the pressure of a pennant race, but instead he is the guy that came to the ballpark on a mission on Wednesday.

The White Sox seem like a broken psych ward, a club aimlessly rambling in twenty five different directions with no sense of stability. Manager Ozzie Guillen is always good for a word with the media, and what better way to fire up your starting pitcher than by questioning his guts and his desire and whether or not he will ever show up big in a big game? That usually works. And so it was with Javier Vazquez Wednesday: four innings, seven hits, five earned runs, one early shower.

The Twins, on the other hand, seem loose and confident and are playing as if they are the ones with the lead looking to stomp out their division rival. It should be exactly the other way around, but credit Twins manager Ron Gardenhire for his ability to loosen up the clubhouse and keep his players focused on the way to winning baseball. His message to his team before Wednesday's game was to control what you can control and play the style of baseball that [the Twins] play best; don' try to do things that [the Twins] haven't done all season or that [the Twins] aren't capable of. What an epiphany. That is why Gardenhire has quietly made his way to the short list of baseball's best managers. Everybody seems to love playing for him.

Mark Buehrle faces Nick Blackburn tonight in Game 2 of this series, and lets see if the White Sox can get this thing back on track. A Chicago win tonight puts enormous pressure on the Twins, who would need Chicago to collapse in their final series against Cleveland to get into the playoffs. The overwhelming feeling, though, is that the Twins are about to head to October and Chicago is going to head home for a cold, bitter winter.


* The New York Mets are dipped into two races, but the sense of urgency for them revolves around the wild card. The Mets trail the Philadelphia Phillies by 1.5 games in the NL East heading into Wednesday and it doesn't appear that they are going to overcome that deficit in the season's final five days. Nonetheless, the Mets win and they are in. They hold a 1 game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL wild card race.

The Mets had to win last night to keep their lead intact, and boy, did Johan Santana ever come up big. Santana answered the call for a big performance with eight great innings, allowing two runs to go along with ten strikeouts. This is exactly the type of performance that Mets GM Omar Minaya had in mind when he handed Santana $137 million to become the Mets new ace. All of the talk leading up to the game was along the lines of "well this is what they paid him for." All of that is fine. It's true. But don't you feel that sense of "it's just never really good enough?" Eight innings, two runs, 10 K's? Pshh. He should have thrown a no-no.

Yeah, there is an enormous price tag hanging on Mr. Santana's locker. But that is what the Mets gave him, and I would argue that he has been everything and more than they could have hoped for. Most guys come to New York and they flop. They can't handle the bright lights, they can't handle the big stage, and they can't handle the attention that comes from the media. Let alone the burden of a record setting contract (See: Zito, Barry). Santana hasn't done any of that. He is a stand-up guy, a guy that is a true face of the franchise along with David Wright, and he has done nothing but give the Mets chances to win ball games.

And yet, a large part of yesterday was spent discussing "is Santana overrated? Underrated? Worth it?" That talk is absurd. Every last syllable of it. Johan Santana is none of those, except for the "worth it" one. That, he is. Santana is not an underrated pitcher. Everyone knows how good he is, everyone recognizes him as one of the top 3 or 5 pitchers in baseball, and the whole league knows he can shut down any team. To be honest, I don't believe any player is underrated if a team thinks enough of him to offer him $100+ million. Enough said about that.

But overrated? Most critics who suggest this simply state that he is not the same guy as he was in Minnesota. He has lost velocity, his slider/cutter is not as devastating, and his change up has taken a hit since its effectiveness is directly related to fast ball velocity. Those are just some of the things the nay-sayers point to. A lot of these things a true. But "less of a pitcher" is certainly not one of them. Santana does not pitch at 93-94 mph anymore. He works more around 90-92. But his change up comes in around 80 mph and it is as good as ever. Most importantly, Santana has improved his fast ball command in the last few years of his career. After all, that's what's supposed to happen with pitchers as they stick around in the big leagues and mature and become better ballplayers. 

Chomp on these numbers for a minute: 15-7, 2.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 197 K's, 225 1/3 IP. What do those numbers spell? What's that word? Ho... oh, yeah. Horse. That's what I was searching for. Read those numbers again one more time, please. Those are numbers pitching on the biggest stage in the biggest market in the biggest spot light, all while trying to buoy an entire pitching staff. And that guy is overrated? Geez. I just don't see it. Sure, $137 million is a ton of money. But it's more of a case of Santana is exactly what the Mets thought they would get for that price tag. He has delivered in a big way for the Mets, no question about it. But, naturally, he will be called a flop if the Mets don't make it to the World Series. Life in the Big Apple...

Quick note on the Brewers. Big walk-off homer from Prince Fielder last night to keep pace with the Mets. Milwaukee sends CC Sabathia to the mound tonight on three days rest looking for a big performance while hoping the Cubs can take care of New York for them. The Brewers have backed themselves into this hole, and it will certainly be disappointing if they don't make the post season. But they do have the easier schedule with Pittsburgh and then the Cubs. By the time the Cubs leave New York for Milwaukee, Lou Pinella will be resting arms and setting up his rotation for October. The Brewers will get a different Chicago team. The Mets on the other hand have to play the Florida Marlins on the final weekend. Remember the little brawl between these two teams during the last weekend of 2007 when the Marlins finished off the Mets collapse on the final day of the season? You don't think they would love to do that again? Play ball. 


* Last but not least is the odd story of the Los Angeles Dodgers that continues to unfold in its peculiar ways. The Dodgers romped the San Diego Padres on Tuesday evening, 10-1, and the Diamondbacks dropped a close one, 7-4, to the Cardinals in St. Louis. Los Angeles leads Arizona by 3 games with five to play. The Dodgers have a chance to wrap up the division at home on Thursday if they get two wins and another loss from Arizona. That would be ideal as they do not want to be heading to San Francisco this weekend still fighting for a post season birth. There is nothing the Giants would love more at this point then to keep the Dodgers out of October. And don't forget, if this crazy division continues to be as wacky as it has been for the rest of the way, the Dodgers could be looking at facing Tim Lincecum on Sunday and needing a win to clinch the division. Yikes. But, relax Dodger fans, my gut tells me they will be enjoying champagne showers before  they even head up to the Bay Area.

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