A great opportunity for Rays

The clock struck midnight early Friday morning at Fenway Park and the Rays were clinging to what had been a comfortable lead, only to have the ball game ripped from their hands by Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, and the Boston Red Sox. They were three innings away from heading to the World Series for the first time in franchise history, three innings away from knocking off the defending World Champs and divisional rival. There surely would have been nothing sweeter for the Rays than to party at Fenway Park, the home of the historic club that tried to push them around in May when James Shields and Johnny Gomes and Co. decided that they had had enough. They decided they weren't going to continue to be the welcome mat for Boston's front porch, and they had to make a statement. One bean ball and a nasty brawl later and the Rays had made their sales pitch. This is a different club, a different organization, a different year.

So, yes, allowing Game 5 to slide right through their fingers like ash through a grill was a punch to the gut, the type of haymaker that forces you to grasp for air for a week. It was devastating in the sense that the emotional letdown could be huge and the fact that they were so close they could taste the champagne and smell the Fall Classic air that would ensue upon capturing that ever elusive twenty-seventh out. But it didn't happen that way. Red Sox lore and Fenway tradition happened instead.

All of that makes for compelling theater, but in reality, it has nothing to do with the baseball game that is going to be played tonight at Tropicana Field. Talk radio went wild in Florida, calling this a major collapse for these young Rays, contemplating the ramifications of such a loss. There is validity in those arguments, but that is not the feeling I get from this club. They aren't worried about what they could have done or should have done the other night in Boston. They are mature beyond their roster ages, wise beyond their baseball years. Worrying is for the fans, not for the guys who put the uniform on and play the game.

The Rays return home where they had the best home-record in baseball this season, and they are giving the ball to "Big Game" James Shields. Scott Kazmir pitched like an ace in Game 5 but Shields is the go-to guy on this staff. He is a bulldog with a relentless approach, sticking to his game plan rather than trying to out-think the opponent. He will come at the Red Sox with a low-90's two-seam fast ball with good movement, and he will offset that offering with one of baseball's best change ups. In a game like this, one where the Rays have a chance to meet the Philadelphia Phillies for a chance at the ultimate hardware, we know that Shields will not be afraid of the spotlight and the pressure.

Tampa's bullpen imploded in the late innings of Game 5, but given their attitude and makeup, they should be able to flush that performance and come to the park ready to dominate the end of the game. I don't see Grant Balfour being hesitant to challenge the Red Sox with his fast ball, despite the home run that David Ortiz hit that just may now be landing in Fenway. J.P. Howell has been huge for Joe Maddon out of the bullpen coming from the left side, and he will not shy away from J.D. Drew or other guys he may be matched up against, say Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. Dan Wheeler has had better days than Thursday evening, but he is a veteran and understands the ups and downs of competition.

The Red Sox are still the ones with the pressure in this series. They need to win Game 6 to live another day, and that test looms large enough. They have Josh Beckett taking the ball and, even with how he has performed this post season dealing with an oblique injury, I don't know if Terry Francona would really want to start anyone else over him, even considering Jon Lester and the performances he has turned in. Beckett hasn't been anything like the power pitcher we have come to know in October, throwing bullets and breaking off hammers that equal double-digit strikeout masterpieces. He has been vulnerable this October, and we know that. But based on who he is and what he has done and his competitive nature, there is a part of me that can never really count him out and restrict expectations.

I predicted Beckett to get back to his old performances in Game 2 against Tampa, and he couldn't make it out of the fifth inning after getting knocked around the yard by Evan Longoria, et al. That's two starts where he has been below average, and so maybe we should expect him to give a good performance, but not a great performance. Maybe we should expect him to battle his way through five or six innings and merely keep the Red Sox in the game. Those sound like reasonable expectations given recent events and his medical reports, but the problem with that is that we just can't think that way. For various reasons, we can never count out that 8 inning, 3-hit, zero runs, 12 strikeout game that could just be awaiting his next start. We have Game 6 of the 2003 World Series in Yankee Stadium burned into our memory. We have Game 5 against the Cleveland Indians in the 2007 ALCS singed into our brains.

For every poor performance that he has had, we can think of at least two good ones. So, sure, he may not be the same guy this season that he was last season. That we can be fairly certain about. But would you really be surprised if he comes out tonight and tosses seven shutout innings and completely overpowers the Rays? I wouldn't. Not at all really. Because that is his reputation, that is what we have come to expect from him, that is his big game pedigree. All of these things are intangibles that may or may not play a part in the ball game tonight. My guess is, still, that they will. But even if we look only at the surface, there is still enough to work with.

Beckett's velocity has been down. He isn't throwing 95-97 mph like he did last October; he is throwing 91-93 mph this year. His breaking ball isn't as sharp and biting as it was last season. But he is still throwing that pitch for strikes and he has introduced his change up. The raw stuff may be a step down, but the fire and will and determination are still there. The key factor for Beckett is not that his stuff has diminished a bit due to his rust or injury, but it's that his command has suffered as well. His fast balls have been over the middle and his breaking balls have hung. If he improves that tonight, the stuff he has is plenty to dominate a game. If he can command his fast ball, we will see the old Beckett results tonight. With fast ball command, he doesn't have to be perfect with his secondary pitches.

Both teams have their question marks, but both teams have a chance to really accomplish something in Game 6. The Red Sox can get this series to Game 7 where we know anything can happen. The Rays can get to the World Series, a great treat for a city that may not be able to keep its baseball team and possibly some incentive for the Rays to make plans for a new ballpark. The thing with new ballparks is that you must have a stable fan base and consistent attendance to support it, something the Rays haven't had yet in their history. Maybe this season will change that. Winning does things like that.

And so it is for the usual contenders and the new scrappers on the block. The papers and sports talk shows want to put the clamp down on the Rays, they want to create a scenario where they have a juicy story to tell should they falter. Red Sox Nation is waiting for their boys to pull through two more times so they will have an opportunity to sing "Sweet Caroline" on their way to a third championship in the last five seasons. The Rays cannot go into tonight's game thinking "we must do this, we must do that", rather they need to look at this ball game the same way they did Game 5. They have a chance to go to the World Series and rewrite the sullied pages of their first decade of existence. Tonight is a great opportunity for the Rays to do something special, not a day for them to recover and try again. And in the event this goes to Game 7, the Rays should look at that game the same way. This isn't panic mode. This is just post season baseball. This is a golden opportunity to accomplish and experience the summit of being a professional athlete.